Early Voting and Independent Votes
Some Early Voting Result Tally – At this Point the Presidency is up for Grabs
The question is how will the independents vote come election day? Several factors are at play here. Romney was right to use the question, “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?”
With unemployment levels at where they are, and lets make this clear, the Media Reports on the U3 Number ONLY which for September was 7.8%. the U6 number which is the TRUE unemployment number stood at 14.7%.
We have in this country 23-24 million Americans out of work, who want to work but can’t find a job.
We have a President that has decimated the coal and oil industries in favor of green energy failures such as Solyndra, and bailing out GM. He advocated stimulus funds that were to create jobs but didn’t. And, we have a situation in Lybia over 4 dead Americans where serious questions need to be answered. And then, of course, we have ObamaCare and Fast and Furious.
Taking an educated guess my belief is that the interdependent voter will take a look around and say, my food, gas, home heating and energy costs are higher than they were 4 years ago and I am still unemployed and will vote for Romney.
Take an animal that is trapped in a corner that is being chased down by a predator. Does that animal run towards what is going to catch him and eat him alive or does it run in the opposite direction towards freedom. The prey is going to move in the opposite direction. Therefore a person who sees his or her situation getting worse, in my opinion, will tend to vote for Romney.
Those Independents who are doing okay, have a job and tend to vote more democratic I think may just vote for Obama, The question than becomes which group of Independents out number the other group. That I think is the key to winning the election.
Here are some interesting statistics on early voting:
COLORADO
Total Number of Votes Caste: 965,510
Break Down: Democratic 35.6%, Republican 38.4%, None/Other 26.0%
In 2008, registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans by a 1.8 percentage point margin and Obama won the state by 8.9 percentage points.
In 2012, the 2.5 percentage point advantage for registered Republicans indicates the state will be more closely contested than ’08.
FLORIDA
Total Number of Votes Cast: 2,223,840
Breakdown: Democratic 42.4%, Republican 41.0%, None/Other 16.6%
Republicans usually win mail-in early ballots by a wide margin in Florida — 12 points or higher — according to Michael McDonald, who oversees the United States Election Project at George Mason University. Democrats have closed the gap with early voting.
IOWA
Total Votes Cast: 497,725
Breakdown: Democratic 44.2%, Republican 32.1%, None/Other 23.7%
Analysis: Romney has slightly narrowed the strong lead the Democrats built — 18 percentage points — in 2008 early Iowa voting. But Obama went on to win the state by 9.5 percentage points in ’08, meaning Romney will still need very strong Election Day
NEVADA
Total Votes Cast: 432,748
Breakdown: Democratic 45.2%, Republican 37.0%, None/Other 17.8%
Analysis: According to McDonald, Nevada’s 2012 early electorate closely resembles the state’s 2008 electorate. Obama won the state by 12.2 percentage points in 2008, and early indications are that Obama will win in Nevada again in 2012.
NORTH CAROLINA
Total Votes Cast: 1,700,128
Breakdown: Democratic 49.2%, Republican 31.2%, None/Other 19.6%
Analysis: At this point in 2008, Democrats had a crushing lead among early voters — 55.9 percent to 27.2 percent — and Obama only narrowly won the state by 0.3 percentage points. Romney has closed that gap enough that the latest data indicate a small lead for him in the state.
OHIO
Total Votes Cast: 1,006,398
Breakdown: State does not do party registration.
Analysis: Most urban, Democratic-leaning counties are on pace to exceed 2008 early-voting levels. But so are Republican-leaning rural counties. This indicates that Ohio will be a tightly contested race, as predicted.
VIRGINIA
Total Votes Cast: 254,074
Party Registration Breakdown: State does not do party registration.
Analysis: Early 2012 voting in Virginia has skewed heavily toward females and the 60-plus demographic. Unlike 2008, the state is allowing in-person early voting in addition to early ballots by mail, meaning early-vote totals will likely exceed ’08’s total of 336,743.
WISCONSIN
Total Votes Cast: 101,253 (in-person only)
Party Registration Breakdown: State does not do party registration.
Analysis: Wisconsin does not have comparable statistics from 2008, so little can be determined about which way the state is leaning in 2012 as compared to the 2008 election.