Early Voting and Independent Votes

Some Early Voting Result Tally – At this Point the Presidency is up for Grabs

The question is how will the independents vote come election day?  Several factors are at play here. Romney was right to use the question, “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?”

With unemployment levels at where they are, and lets make this clear, the Media Reports on the U3 Number ONLY which for September was 7.8%. the U6 number which is the TRUE unemployment number stood at 14.7%.

We have in this country 23-24 million Americans out of work, who want to work but can’t find a job.

We have a President that has decimated the coal and oil industries in favor of green energy failures such as Solyndra, and bailing out GM. He advocated stimulus funds that were to create jobs but didn’t.  And, we have a situation in Lybia over 4 dead Americans where serious questions need to be answered.  And then, of course, we have  ObamaCare and Fast and Furious.

Taking an educated guess my belief is that the interdependent voter will take a look around and say, my food, gas, home heating and energy costs are higher than they were 4 years ago and I am still unemployed and will vote for Romney.

Take an animal that is trapped in a corner that is being chased down by a predator. Does that animal run towards what is going to catch him and eat him alive or does it run in the opposite direction towards freedom. The prey is going to move in the opposite direction. Therefore a person who sees his or her situation getting worse, in my opinion, will tend to vote for Romney.

Those Independents who are doing okay, have a job and tend to vote more democratic I think may just vote for Obama, The question than becomes which group of Independents out number the other group. That I think is the key to winning the election.

Here are some interesting statistics on early voting:

Total Number of Votes Caste: 965,510
Break Down: Democratic 35.6%, Republican 38.4%, None/Other 26.0%
In 2008, registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans by a 1.8 percentage point margin and Obama won the state by 8.9 percentage points.
In 2012, the 2.5 percentage point advantage for registered Republicans indicates the state will be more closely contested than ’08.


Total Number of Votes Cast: 2,223,840
Breakdown: Democratic 42.4%, Republican 41.0%, None/Other 16.6%
Republicans usually win mail-in early ballots by a wide margin in Florida — 12 points or higher — according to Michael McDonald, who oversees the United States Election Project at George Mason University. Democrats have closed the gap with early voting.

Total Votes Cast: 497,725
Breakdown: Democratic 44.2%, Republican 32.1%, None/Other 23.7%
Analysis: Romney has slightly narrowed the strong lead the Democrats built — 18 percentage points — in 2008 early Iowa voting. But Obama went on to win the state by 9.5 percentage points in ’08, meaning Romney will still need very strong Election Day

Total Votes Cast: 432,748
Breakdown: Democratic 45.2%, Republican 37.0%, None/Other 17.8%
Analysis: According to McDonald, Nevada’s 2012 early electorate closely resembles the state’s 2008 electorate. Obama won the state by 12.2 percentage points in 2008, and early indications are that Obama will win in Nevada again in 2012.

Total Votes Cast: 1,700,128
Breakdown: Democratic 49.2%, Republican 31.2%, None/Other 19.6%
Analysis: At this point in 2008, Democrats had a crushing lead among early voters — 55.9 percent to 27.2 percent — and Obama only narrowly won the state by 0.3 percentage points. Romney has closed that gap enough that the latest data indicate a small lead for him in the state.

Total Votes Cast: 1,006,398
Breakdown: State does not do party registration.
Analysis: Most urban, Democratic-leaning counties are on pace to exceed 2008 early-voting levels. But so are Republican-leaning rural counties. This indicates that Ohio will be a tightly contested race, as predicted.

Total Votes Cast: 254,074
Party Registration Breakdown: State does not do party registration.
Analysis: Early 2012 voting in Virginia has skewed heavily toward females and the 60-plus demographic. Unlike 2008, the state is allowing in-person early voting in addition to early ballots by mail, meaning early-vote totals will likely exceed ’08’s total of 336,743.

Total Votes Cast: 101,253 (in-person only)
Party Registration Breakdown: State does not do party registration.
Analysis: Wisconsin does not have comparable statistics from 2008, so little can be determined about which way the state is leaning in 2012 as compared to the 2008 election.

State of Connecticut Not Better after Tax Hikes

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Obama: I had to negotiate with those”hostage takers” … aka: Republicans

Obama’s most incredible statement comes in response to a question by NBC’s Chuck Todd who asks the President to respond to the Democrat Progressive wing that finds the Obama compromise outrageous, among other things. The President’s weak response is hardly Presidential, but then that should not surprise you. The only thing missing here is “The devil made me do it.” Read more

Obama and Republicans strike deal to save tax rates, unemployment checks UPDATE: Video up

Forgive me for being underwhelmed. The Republicans held all the cards and I don’t see this as much of a victory for the conservative way as a victory for politicians. But still, the tax rates will remain in force for those making more than $200,000 a year and unemployment benefits will be extended another year. Read more

Matthews and McDermott agree: Republicans are Scrooges

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Chris Christie to Republicans … put up or shut up

Indeed. I’ll take one of these please. NJ Governor Chris Christie was one of the featured guests on Meet The Press yesterday and while it looked like David Gregory was ready to pounce on hypocrisy, generally the MSM lefties’ favorite topic, Chris Christie has the answers … including a message to Republicans. Read more

Dan Mitchell sends warning to GOP – Cut spending or get run out of town

This is very Dan Mitchell and very CATO but still a good reminder to all. Read more

Obama: So there’s this car, ya see? And the Republicans drove this car ….

My goodness. As AP at Hot Air would say …. who’s up for another “car analogy” from the young President?  I’m yawning. I’m yawning some more . ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ. Read more

Obama: Republicans are the reason you may not get your unemployment check

Of course the  premise is nonsense. But it’s  political year and since the President’s ratings are in the tank, you will pretty much try anything to stir the American people against the Republicans.

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The Grandma’s have spoken … Is it too late for a Democrat comeback … you betcha!

The latest Wall Street Journal Poll can’t be good news for the Dems, and if the trends hold true for 5 more months (and given the way the Dems are behaving, why not?), Connecticut may be one of the few states to put Democrats back in power. I’ll take that. It will be fun to see John Larson’s group become the party of “No”.

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