Early Voting and Independent Votes

Some Early Voting Result Tally – At this Point the Presidency is up for Grabs

The question is how will the independents vote come election day?  Several factors are at play here. Romney was right to use the question, “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?”

With unemployment levels at where they are, and lets make this clear, the Media Reports on the U3 Number ONLY which for September was 7.8%. the U6 number which is the TRUE unemployment number stood at 14.7%.

We have in this country 23-24 million Americans out of work, who want to work but can’t find a job.

We have a President that has decimated the coal and oil industries in favor of green energy failures such as Solyndra, and bailing out GM. He advocated stimulus funds that were to create jobs but didn’t.  And, we have a situation in Lybia over 4 dead Americans where serious questions need to be answered.  And then, of course, we have  ObamaCare and Fast and Furious.

Taking an educated guess my belief is that the interdependent voter will take a look around and say, my food, gas, home heating and energy costs are higher than they were 4 years ago and I am still unemployed and will vote for Romney.

Take an animal that is trapped in a corner that is being chased down by a predator. Does that animal run towards what is going to catch him and eat him alive or does it run in the opposite direction towards freedom. The prey is going to move in the opposite direction. Therefore a person who sees his or her situation getting worse, in my opinion, will tend to vote for Romney.

Those Independents who are doing okay, have a job and tend to vote more democratic I think may just vote for Obama, The question than becomes which group of Independents out number the other group. That I think is the key to winning the election.

Here are some interesting statistics on early voting:

Total Number of Votes Caste: 965,510
Break Down: Democratic 35.6%, Republican 38.4%, None/Other 26.0%
In 2008, registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans by a 1.8 percentage point margin and Obama won the state by 8.9 percentage points.
In 2012, the 2.5 percentage point advantage for registered Republicans indicates the state will be more closely contested than ’08.


Total Number of Votes Cast: 2,223,840
Breakdown: Democratic 42.4%, Republican 41.0%, None/Other 16.6%
Republicans usually win mail-in early ballots by a wide margin in Florida — 12 points or higher — according to Michael McDonald, who oversees the United States Election Project at George Mason University. Democrats have closed the gap with early voting.

Total Votes Cast: 497,725
Breakdown: Democratic 44.2%, Republican 32.1%, None/Other 23.7%
Analysis: Romney has slightly narrowed the strong lead the Democrats built — 18 percentage points — in 2008 early Iowa voting. But Obama went on to win the state by 9.5 percentage points in ’08, meaning Romney will still need very strong Election Day

Total Votes Cast: 432,748
Breakdown: Democratic 45.2%, Republican 37.0%, None/Other 17.8%
Analysis: According to McDonald, Nevada’s 2012 early electorate closely resembles the state’s 2008 electorate. Obama won the state by 12.2 percentage points in 2008, and early indications are that Obama will win in Nevada again in 2012.

Total Votes Cast: 1,700,128
Breakdown: Democratic 49.2%, Republican 31.2%, None/Other 19.6%
Analysis: At this point in 2008, Democrats had a crushing lead among early voters — 55.9 percent to 27.2 percent — and Obama only narrowly won the state by 0.3 percentage points. Romney has closed that gap enough that the latest data indicate a small lead for him in the state.

Total Votes Cast: 1,006,398
Breakdown: State does not do party registration.
Analysis: Most urban, Democratic-leaning counties are on pace to exceed 2008 early-voting levels. But so are Republican-leaning rural counties. This indicates that Ohio will be a tightly contested race, as predicted.

Total Votes Cast: 254,074
Party Registration Breakdown: State does not do party registration.
Analysis: Early 2012 voting in Virginia has skewed heavily toward females and the 60-plus demographic. Unlike 2008, the state is allowing in-person early voting in addition to early ballots by mail, meaning early-vote totals will likely exceed ’08’s total of 336,743.

Total Votes Cast: 101,253 (in-person only)
Party Registration Breakdown: State does not do party registration.
Analysis: Wisconsin does not have comparable statistics from 2008, so little can be determined about which way the state is leaning in 2012 as compared to the 2008 election.

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  1. JBS on November 4, 2012 at 8:24 am

    Early voting: If you know that you are not going to be able to vote on Election Day, then early voting is, wait . . . whoa . . .? isn’t that what absentee ballots are for?
    So, why is there early voting? My only thought is that politicians use it to stampede the weak-minded among us into declaring for their party before Election Day. Maybe early voters think they can vote again on Election Day? Are there really that many voters that the polls cannot handle all of the people who show up? I have always wondered, what if a person votes early and decides that he or she made a huge mistake? Can the vote be voided?
    Early voting always seemed to me to be ripe for for fraud.
    ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? | * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * |
    As I live in Connecticut, Democrats abound. Independents, who I think will vote Republican, usually express that their vote will only cancel a Democrat vote. They have little hope that Connecticut will turn against Obama. Almost all Democrat voters here are linked to some kind of state money, i.e., state workers, union members, etc. While they might…

  2. Lynn on November 4, 2012 at 8:55 am

    I think that early voting proves one point. The election season is way too long. President Obama started campaigning for 2012 immediately in 2009. He has done nothing but campaign, that is why the economy is in shambles. I don’t know how you can prevent a President from campaigning instead of governing, but I do think President Obama is a “one of a kind”. Personally, I think we should adopt the election process of England and just shorten the process. ?It is apparent that the “undecided” don’t decide until after the debates, so a shorter process makes more sense. Also, it would cut the ?ridiculous amount of money spent on a campaign. Hey, maybe if all the states go to early voting, it will happen anyway.?

    • stinkfoot on November 4, 2012 at 10:04 am

      Trust me, we do NOT want this Treasodent to devote all his energies to governing.? The distraction of a three year reelection campaign and innumerable golf outings may well have been what has spared the country.? Hundreds of billions of dollars to subsidize green energy failures and none to secure our consulate in Benghazi.? Do you really want someone this contemptible to actually preside full time?? He should be facing impeachment and not seeking a second stab at destroying the country.

    • Lynn on November 4, 2012 at 11:08 am

      You have a point there. But again I say, He is one of a kind and not my kind. I don’t believe any other president would campaign for a full 4 years as he did. We will see if he is the country’s kind. Because, if he wins a second term, he will be governing 100% of the time. Go Romney!

  3. Shared Sacrifice on November 4, 2012 at 12:13 pm

    Looks like there’s a higher percentage of democrat votes than republican in all states except Colorado, but who have they voted for? ?Did anyone know Roseanne Barr & Cindy Sheehan are running for prez and vp on the Peace and Freedom party? ?Just when you thought it couldn’t get worse 🙂

  4. PatRiot on November 4, 2012 at 3:25 pm

    Tom – great post.? In some ways, though, it makes me feel like a Hawaiian.? Early election results reporting pretty much says to Hawaiians “You vote doesn’t count because we have a clear winner.”
    Besides, look what early reporting did for Benghazi.

  5. yeah on November 5, 2012 at 9:19 am

    As CT residents know, if there’s any question whether or not the “correct” candidate will win, we can always count on people like Susan Bycewicz to help engineer election fraud and find some bags of votes that all happen to be democrat votes!


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