Posts

Katie Couric wrong – 59% conservative, not 42% independent

I’m bored with polling and disappointed on how twisted the analysis can be. It all depends on how the question is asked and the context. CBS News anchor Katie Couric suggests Republicans avoid those representing extreme views – like Rush Limbaugh and Sarah Palin – especially since 42 percent of Americans call themselves independents. Read more

I’ve been polled: Connecticut governor’s race

If you’re one of those people who wonders who those pollsters are calling, look no further. Somehow, I got on a list and just got off the phone with a nice woman from Issues & Answers Network, Inc. (I think), a marketing research company out of Virginia Beach. The poll was quite specific to Connecticut politics and the race for governor.

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Palin could be next national conservative leader

I have no idea who will step up as the leader of conservatives during the next two years. Quite honestly, I’m not sure if anyone will step up as a national leader for conservatives. But we do need a leader.

Could it be Gov. Palin? One thing seems for certain, if we held a national Republican primary right now, she’d win hands down.

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What was Wrong with the Polls in New Hampshire

I’ve been thinking about the polling that was reporting that Obama was winning in New Hampshire – pretty big – and that McCain might be ahead, but Romney was gaining ground. These polls reported during the last 48 hours before the election were off the mark. Michael Medved just posted a pretty good analysis.

I think pollsters and experts were right that most of the independents in New Hampshire (45% of all voters) liked two candidates: Obama and McCain. In the forty-eight hours before the polls closed, they got a consistent message about their two favorites: Obama had his victory in the bag, but McCain was potentially in trouble. Therefore, sophisticated independent voters (who could choose to participate in either the Republican or Democratic contest) reasoned that McCain needed their help but Obama didn’t. Therefore, those who wanted, above all, to make a difference, switched at the last moment to the GOP side, abandoning their previous intention to vote Democratic. That’s why the split of independent voters between those who went with the GOP and those who went with the Democrats wasn’t nearly as one-sidedly Democratic as expected..

That would also answer my question concerning turn-out. I was surprised to see that 279,000 people voted for a Democrat and 228,000 voted for a Republican. I expected a wider gap between the two considering the state usually votes Democrat.

With Democrats allowed to vote only for Democrats, and Republicans for Republicans, voters express their genuine political beliefs – liberal or conservative – before an election. In New Hampshire, most voters (45 percent) are independents that can vote for whomever they want during a primary. I don’t like this.

I certainly would not call independent voters in New Hampshire sophisticated, they are the ones that lick their finger and stick it in the air the morning of election day. Moderates… independents… they never take a stand on anything.