Breaking Down Brown – Coakley – Prediction stands Update: More polls

UPDATE 1: New poll info below the fold. Scroll down.

Ed Morrissey over at Hot Air has taken a look at the latest polls to measure the Massachusetts Senate race … and breaks them down by party affiliation. It’s worse than Coakley could ever imagine.

Update: I’ve run the numbers through a couple of permutations using the ARG survey answers.  Instead of using the +23.5 Dems survey ARG has, I’ll use the numbers from Pollster.com’s likely-voter scenario and rerun the survey percentages:

			Brown	Coakley
Dems	300		60	213
GOP	192		180.48	1.92
Indys	108		62.64	39.96
			303.12	254.88
			50.52%	42.48%

In this case, Brown wins by almost eight points, and wins a majority of the vote before the undecideds make up their minds.  Now lets look at a sample that uses the 35% independent vote and gives the Dems a +15 turnout in the election:

Dems	240		48	170.4
GOP	150		141	1.5
Indys	210		121.8	77.7
			310.8	249.6
			51.80%	41.60%

Now we see a ten-point lead for Brown.

Ed has all the polls, including absentee. I refer one more time to my prediction last Wednesday … but give me a chance to explain now since this is the first I have blogged since being hospitalized.

Brown already had the momentum going into last week when he narrowed the lead to 9 points. Nothing to go on there except he had people shifting with each day. Only a major gaffe by Coakley could pull this out for Brown. In my opinion it happened when Coakley, in a very Catholic state which sits in the middle of a very Catholic region decided to make her heartfelt but ill advised comment about Catholics working in an emergency room. You know, where she’s asked about the medical conscience clause on administering the abortion pill. Not smart. Choice is one thing, becoming the determiner of another’s conscience is another.

Most people today are pro life. I don’t need a poll to back that up. It is natural. But at least half the country doesn’t believe it’s right to interfere with a women’s decision to abort her baby. It’s a distinction that Coakley should have understood. Simply put, Ms Coakley is likely not very bright, out of touch with her Catholic constituency and doomed to failure.

Her comments angered some, appalled others, and led still more to question her mental acuity. It was, I think, the turning point. Although there are so many in recent days. But this was the first big stumble in the Bay State. It is what I based last week’s prediction on. We’ll see if I am right. Here for the record is the comment and remember … I told Steve this was a game changer a week ago.

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJ-ZeLSZPc8

and just for the record … here’s a Mass nurse going after Coakley.

httpv://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2voSEvguviY

UPDATE:

Update: This time it’s AP over at Hot Air. AP cautions, these numbers are good for Brown but can’t vouch for reliability. Read below the Update for more on the polling. But then that’s 12 hours old. Ha!

Republican Scott Brown leads Democrat Martha Coakley 52% to 45% in the special Massachusetts US Senate race to replace Senator Ted Kennedy according to a telephone survey conducted January 15-17 among 600 likely voters in Massachusetts saying they will definitely vote in the special election on January 19.

Brown leads Coakley 97% to 1% among registered Republicans and he leads 64% to 32% among unenrolled voters. Coakley leads Brown 73% to 23% among registered Democrats…

A total of 8% of likely voters say they have already voted by absentee ballot, with Brown leading Coakley 54% to 44%, with 2% for Kennedy.