Question: 30 days ago, did you think Herman Cain would be poll leader today?

I’ll be honest – hell no. Looking back, I was pretty certain that Herman Cain, even before he announced his 9-9-9 plan, really did not have a chance just because of name recognition, political experience and cash flow. So remember this lesson thirty days from now when someone else is in the lead for the GOP nomination.

Hat tip to AP at Hot Air, who points out the Public Policy Poling (PPP) results from Oct. 12.

Yesterday PPP released numbers showing Herman Cain leading Mitt Romney 30-22 in Iowa and our monthly look at the national picture finds the exact same numbers.  Cain is up 30-22 on Romney with Newt Gingrich sneaking past Rick Perry for 3rd place at 15% to Perry’s 14% with Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul tied for 5th at 5%, Jon Huntsman 7th at 2%, Rick Santorum 8th at 1%, and Gary Johnson 9th with less than 1%.

Results from the NBC Wall Street Journal poll released this morning.

Cain’s numbers are sky-high among Republican primary voters. Fifty-two percent view him favorably, versus just 6 percent who see him unfavorably. Among Tea Party supporters, his favorable/unfavorable score is 69 percent to 5 percent. And among Republicans who identify themselves as “very conservative,” it’s 72 percent to 2 percent.

Quickly going through the NBC Wall Street Journal poll, I’m not a fan of how many of the survey questions are asked, but when it comes to the GOP field, at least they did only include registered Republican voters who said they were likely to vote in the primary. Here is question 18 (click to enlarge). It’s Cain 27, Romney 23, Perry 16 and Paul 11.

You can review the complete survey in PDF format.

Even though there are rumblings of a state primary in December, it’s still early. Remember that, and if you are part of the very small minority who bet Cain would be in the lead today, tell us your prediction for the same surveys in mid-November.

31 replies
  1. Anybody but Obama
    Anybody but Obama says:

    Steve, what I see is that the average Joe is just sick and tired of politicians and the lies.

  2. Anne-EH
    Anne-EH says:

    These very impressive numbers is a sign that people of principles have HAD ENOUGH of the GOP establishment TELLING THEM WHO TO SUPPORT?as the front runner.

  3. Dimsdale
    Dimsdale says:

    At almost the exact same time about ten years ago (June 1998), GWB was polling at about 7% among Republican candidates.? It is waaaay too early to predict a “sure thing”.

    • Anne-EH
      Anne-EH says:

      That is why the GOP establishment must stop this picking-and-chosing who the canidiate will be. This is the message the common folks are saying in regards to Cain and the numbers.

  4. Plainvillian
    Plainvillian says:

    Any lead Cain has will only last until the racist republicans hear the rumor that Cain may be black….? he may have a birth certificate, but if he’s really black… it’s something we need to look into.

  5. sdmf01255
    sdmf01255 says:

    for my entire adult life i have been an unaffiliated voter, but 2 days ago i switched to the republican party. Just so i could vote in the ma primary, to vote for Mr. Cain!

    • brianh
      brianh says:

      Wasn’t necessary…recent legislation allows unaffiliateds to chose a party at the?primary AND automatically?switches them back to unaffiliated after the election.

  6. Murphy
    Murphy says:

    Sorry no matter what I must say Nein to the last 9, give them another tax? Not frackin hardley. Then it’ll get back to 35 35 35.

  7. Jeff S
    Jeff S says:

    100 or so years of career politicians and look where we are.? Let’s give a no nonsense businessman a chance, you go Mr. Cain !!!!

  8. Benjamin Less
    Benjamin Less says:

    This last election, 2008 stirred up a selective voter base never into politics.? We have to thank the rhetoric of Obama for drawing them in.? What’s sad, many are really disenchanted by Obama’s results on “Hope and Change” and won’t return to the voters’ booths out of disgust.? For 2012, “Hope and Change” now becomes Cain’s, “Substance Over Dreams.”?
    My guess is Cain will be the contrast of Obama’s claims by a real world track record.? The two head to head is a perfect conclusion it’s not about being Black or under privileged, or about getting a hand up or hand out.? It’ll be two men standing side by side exposing one as a fake.
    Cain’s our new Miracle Whip!
    *oh snap!*

    • chelly1222
      chelly1222 says:

      Agreed that people are disenchanted with Obama. I’d been thinking they’d be more likely to vote Republican, but you’re right, maybe they just won’t vote. Only time will tell.

  9. ricbee
    ricbee says:

    ?I think Mr Cain is the only one that could lose to Obama. We already gave a Black a chance & look how that turned out….

  10. beekeeper925
    beekeeper925 says:

    Herman Cain WILL get the Republican nomination and that will complete the Tea Party takeover of the way too long ruling class of RINO’s of the Republican party.

  11. Dimsdale
    Dimsdale says:

    This morning on the CBS Early Show, they had a Nobel Prize winning economist (I think his name was Engman) on to discuss OWS, and he said 1) taxing the rich won’t pay for ?bama’s “jobs” programs (all it would do is make the protesters think something was happening and increase their comeraderie), and 2) the “protesters” should be protesting the politicians, who keep putting Band Aids on the economy and applying ineffectual “fixes”.?
    Sounds mighty similar to what Cain has been saying…

  12. Benjamin Less
    Benjamin Less says:

    Cain’s failure will be the inability to explain the 999 Plan clearly and concisely.? As you can see, both Democrats and (R)-running mates have shot it down focusing exclusively on dumbed-down tactics over one issue in the Plan, the raising of? “sales tax.”? Cain should focus talking points toward the ridding of loopholes and tax deductions which are nothing but a means by which the government socially engineers behaviour.? Another strong talking point should be the reduction of tens of billions of dollars over annual tax preparations – which would no longer be needed due to a simplified – streamlined system.? All this to say, because Cain has shown his cards early on a Plan, he’s an open target to be taken down by both parties.? Cain represents a threat to the inner circle of “Life-Time” politicians running our country.

  13. Anybody but Obama
    Anybody but Obama says:

    With Paul Ryan and Art Laffer endorsing the plan there’s hope. With everybody saying? it will be 20-20-20 in no time people forget its going to take a 2/3 majority vote to change, Thats getting both parties pulling in one direction. Good luck with that, if it did happen then?time to change congress

  14. chelly1222
    chelly1222 says:

    I like the fact that, as Benjamin Less pointed out, Cain showed his cards early on in the game. It gives people more time to look at it, and possibly criticize it, and for Cain to consider changes. My concern is the only economic advisor he has named is someone with an accounting degree, not an economics degree.

  15. Gary J
    Gary J says:

    I have been a believer from the start. If not the first in the state, I was in the chat roll. To me it was the only way to given a close look at any other candidate.

  16. zedgar2
    zedgar2 says:

    Cain’s still an enigma. He refuses to provide full details of the economic analysis of 9-9-9. Playing around with tax and income stats and reading other analyses suggest that he may be cooking the books a bit. I suspect that’s why he’s not laying it all out yet. I also think seniors will get seriously whacked. If you’re on a fixed income of, say, $20,000, you probably pay little to no income tax today and you pay no payroll taxes. So this is almost a pure increase for them – they may go from an effective tax rate of less than 5% to a rate that is 12-15% depending on how much they consume. That’s a huge issue for a big segment of the population. And there are other aspects of this that need to be considered. For example, what happens to tax-free municipal bond interest? If you tax it (since there are no deductions other than for charity), states and cities will be hurt by higher interest rates. If you exempt it, you add to complexity and you may not raise the full revenue that you anticipated. And what about things like annuity payments which are income but are largely a return of the after-tax money you put in. Today’s tax code properly excludes a portion of annuity payments for this reason. Does Cain’s 9-9-9 plan…

    • brianh
      brianh says:

      Seniors/those that have made their money and had it taxed, get it taxed again.
      Hence I’ve never supported?a sales tax.? Relax a little bit, though. Presidential candidates, nor even Presidents, aren’t the ones that write/enact exact?legislation.

  17. mynoc3
    mynoc3 says:

    I agree with some comments above.? The 9-9-9 plan may not be perfect, but it’s a good place to start.? I think it would be foolish to thing congress will pass his plan as is anyway.? Obiously it loses effect the more it’s modified.? I have been in favor of? Cain for a long time.? I would much rather have him vs. a more moderate canidate like Romney.

    • Dimsdale
      Dimsdale says:

      At least it shows he is thinking about it in real world terms, not in flowery, academic, theoretical, and yes, political terms.? He has the benefit of real world experience that ?bama sorely lacks.

Comments are closed.