I’ll be honest – hell no. Looking back, I was pretty certain that Herman Cain, even before he announced his 9-9-9 plan, really did not have a chance just because of name recognition, political experience and cash flow. So remember this lesson thirty days from now when someone else is in the lead for the GOP nomination.
Yesterday PPP released numbers showing Herman Cain leading Mitt Romney 30-22 in Iowa and our monthly look at the national picture finds the exact same numbers. Cain is up 30-22 on Romney with Newt Gingrich sneaking past Rick Perry for 3rd place at 15% to Perry’s 14% with Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul tied for 5th at 5%, Jon Huntsman 7th at 2%, Rick Santorum 8th at 1%, and Gary Johnson 9th with less than 1%.
Results from the NBC Wall Street Journal poll released this morning.
Cain’s numbers are sky-high among Republican primary voters. Fifty-two percent view him favorably, versus just 6 percent who see him unfavorably. Among Tea Party supporters, his favorable/unfavorable score is 69 percent to 5 percent. And among Republicans who identify themselves as “very conservative,” it’s 72 percent to 2 percent.
Quickly going through the NBC Wall Street Journal poll, I’m not a fan of how many of the survey questions are asked, but when it comes to the GOP field, at least they did only include registered Republican voters who said they were likely to vote in the primary. Here is question 18 (click to enlarge). It’s Cain 27, Romney 23, Perry 16 and Paul 11.
You can review the complete survey in PDF format.
Even though there are rumblings of a state primary in December, it’s still early. Remember that, and if you are part of the very small minority who bet Cain would be in the lead today, tell us your prediction for the same surveys in mid-November.