Posts

Famously wrong Obama economist tries again

Oh, and just for good measure, “It’s Bush’s fault.” Christina Romer, the famously inaccurate economic crystal ball gazer gazes into her crystal ball again and predicts the economy will begin creating jobs again come spring. Read more

Graphical representation of job losses since Jan. 2007

I thought this was a very interesting time lapse map of unemployment since January 2007.

Read more

15% unemployment

Depressing. From yesterday’s Happy Hour, Cody Willard asks economist Peter Morici to gaze into the crystal ball and predict unemployment a year from now and how long before recovery. Depressing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OgIdjvn_lmU

Unemployment at 10.2% – can we stop spending money now?

Going to have to reference the graph again. And you’ll see it next month too. These are not economic estimates, this is how the Executive Branch sold the emergency spending legislation to the public. If we did not pass the recovery plan immediately … well you know …

Read more

Steve Wynn schools Obama’s supporters on the economy

It’s a series of three video clips. The first is Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi. He agrees we will be facing double digit unemployment for months if not years. But he says the stimulus is working. Otherwise it would be worse. Really?

We’ve heard this line before … from these same economists. Remember? We were told if we didn’t pass the stimulus unemployment would exceed 8%. The stimulus would prevent that. Remember? maybe this chart will refresh your memory.

Unemployment with stimulus graph

Well that was pretty much all Steve Wynn could stand. He employs 20,000. Never laid anyone off he says … get out of the way, he says. Let the private sector create jobs.

Oh but no … Wynn is not finished. Not until he takes on Michigan’s Governor Granholm. The woman who presides over the worst state economy in the country (OK, sorry California), where unemployment is at Depression levels … 15.2%.

Blog Prof has the whole rundown … on the jobs picture.

Oh and a big hat tip to Gateway for pointing out the sorry state of Michigan for me. He has a pretty nice video over there of Detroiters clamoring for “Obama money”

Is the minimum wage increase helping?

Yeah, don’t think so. So much for the increase in the minimum wage that happened in July. I’m NOT saying the increase in the federal minimum wage directly caused the problem, but the unemployment rate for the 16 – 24 age bracket now stands at 52.2 percent. Read more

Economic Roundup … and the news ain’t good.

I know, I know … the recession is over. But somehow statistical confirmation is outweighed by friends and family who still can’t find jobs, and 9.7% unemployment (new figures come out this week ) is hardly reassuring. I can assure you Wall Street is worried.

Predicting economic direction is tricky business .. especially now. I always hold off on this kind of stuff, especially since its so easy to misread the monthly tea leaves. But based on the following, and what my former colleagues on Wall Street tell me casually, I worry, although I can’t speak for my Mom, the eternal optimist.

Dead End Kids: Unemployment for people aged 16 to 24 is disastrous. Mom and Dad … remember the recession is over. And can I have some gas money?

The unemployment rate for young Americans has exploded to 52.2 percent — a post-World War II high, according to the Labor Dept. — meaning millions of Americans are staring at the likelihood that their lifetime earning potential will be diminished and, combined with the predicted slow economic recovery, their transition into productive members of society could be put on hold for an extended period of time.

And worse, without a clear economic recovery plan aimed at creating entry-level jobs, the odds of many of these young adults — aged 16 to 24, excluding students — getting a job and moving out of their parents’ houses are long. Young workers have been among the hardest hit during the current recession — in which a total of 9.5 million jobs have been lost.

Home Sales Fall … Again: I know, I know … the recession is over. How’s that tax credit working out for you?

First-time buyers accounted for about 30% of sales in July and August, Yun said.

Without an extension of the taxpayer subsidy, the housing market could fall into a “double-dip” downturn, Yun said, which would stall the overall economic recovery.

Durbale Goods Down 2.4%: That’s manufacturing … blue collar jobs.

Durable goods orders are a leading indicator of manufacturing activity, which in turn provides a good measure for overall business health. U.S. stock index futures fell on the report, while government bond prices rose.

“This is a bit of a reality check for people. It means there is more to be done and we are not out of the woods yet,” said Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at Channel Capital Research.com in Shrewsbury, N.J.

Fresh Bank Bailouts: Small banks this time. But not a good sign for an economy that depends on lending, especially the lending power that small banks provide small businesses. It also doesn’t say much for “the recession is over”.

Geithner has trumpeted the end of some emergency financial programs as signs the economy is recovering. The department expects to see tens of billions of dollars in additional repayments to the fund in coming months.

But Doyle said FDIC officials still expect up to 150 bank failures this year. So far, 95 banks have been closed. That’s the most since 1992, during the savings-and-loan crisis.

Large Bank Loan Losses Tripple to $53 billion: Remember the recession is over, it’s just the engine that will drive us out is still pretty sick.

According to an annual report released by the four federal bank-regulatory agencies on Thursday, credit quality deteriorated to record levels this year.

The report said total identified losses of $53.3 billion in 2009 surpassed last year’s total of $2.6 billion, and nearly tripled the previous peak in 2002, when losses totaled $19.1 billion.

“While we expected a year-over-year increase in problem assets, given the weak economic environment, declining (commercial real estate) values, and previously weak underwriting, we were surprised by the magnitude of the increase,” wrote FBR Capital Markets analyst Scott Valentin in a research note to clients Friday.

With new figures coming out this week on jobs and housing, all of this could change. But not likely. If the stimulus was meant to jump start the economy then it has failed. If it was meant to simply grow government azt the expense of the private sector (which is precisely what it was meant to do) … that’s something Americans needed to know.

Good thing we did that stimulus, huh? Update: Video

This chart keeps changing and not for the better.

Some analysis here at Michaels Comments. But what stuns me is not that the stimulus is not working … we warned you in February that shoveling money to Democrat public works projects does not stimulate the private sector where jobs are created. It’s not that the Democrats tried and succeed in panicking the public into thinking unless this porkapalooza passes the economy will get worse (the chat below pretty much blows that idea up). What stuns me is that after all of this these politicians actually expect us to trust them … again. These guys crack me up. Click to enlarge.

Unemployment with stimulus graph

Oh and HotAir has some great video of Christina Romer spinning the numbers.

Visit msnbc.com for Breaking News, World News, and News about the Economy

Ed has some nice analysis of the numbers. As we have been saying for months, the numbers don’t keep going down. At some point they stop. The economy can’t go to zero. Well at least a market economy can’t go to zero. The question becomes one of, not how much less worse will it get and not even when will it turn (which the anchor in the video eventually asks). The real question is how much better, once the slide stops, can we expect the economy to get over the next two to three years. The answer of course is, given the out of control government debt and the ostracizing of the private sector, not much.

Real Unemployment Rate Hits 16.8%

Real, as in, the people who are actually out of work: the recently unemployed. the ones who have given up, and the marginally employed … folks who work just a part time job just so they can eat. Not good

U-6_unemployment

Blame for the current unemployment rate

I’m not one to blame one person for the current unemployment rate. Many factors are involved and it’s just too complicated to blame it on one person or one administration. Bloggers and the media do like to place blame (it’s sexy) but I’m not sure displaying a graph comparing average rates during a president’s term is helpful.

Read more