Toast? Dodd trails by 11

It’s just one poll, it’s still a year away, but the time is running shorter and the poll is running in the wrong direction for the senior Senator from Connecticut.

Former Connecticut Congressman Rob Simmons has an early lead in the Republican primary race for the 2010 U.S. Senate contest and runs better than any other challenger against Sen. Christopher Dodd, topping the Democratic incumbent 49 – 38 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

I have a friend in the politics biz who says when an incumbant is below 45 he’s in trouble, when it’s below 40, he’s toast. I don’t think the Senator is toast … but he better get out of the toaster fast or he will be.

Ed Morrissey at Hot Air wonders how the Senator could be so far behind in a blue state like Connecticut.

How is Dodd doing so poorly in the blue, blue state of Connecticut?  He’s losing both men and women, for one thing, and even 15% of Democrats would vote for Simmons in a general election; only 68% of Democrats would commit to voting for Dodd, with the rest undecided.  The biggest problem, as it is for Democrats all over the country, is the flight of independents.  Simmons wins among independent voters by a whopping 2-1 margin, 57%-29%.

Ed’s correct. It is about independents. But it goes much deeper than a poll identification. Connecticans have deep roots in colonial values. It is indeed a wealthy and compassionate state, which accounts for the high incidence of limo liberals, and its blue collar workers are generally union workers. Thus the blue.

But there is a strong and growing cadre in this state, Democrats, Republicans and independents who value those colonial values more than party, especially when those values are threatened or so overtly trampled by lip serving politicians who take advantage of their position of power to enrich themselves or pay back their cronies, even as they struggle to stay afloat.

Dodd tried to stop Fannie Mae reform, he was at the helm of the ship when the Fannie Mae crisis hit, he received VIP treatment from a bank that he helped oversee, he consistently undervalued his “third” home located in Ireland, he authored a provison in the stimulus that allowed for AIG bonuses (which I do not mind) and then lied about it.

Any one of those folks in Connecticut would forgive. Shameful, but true. But together, it’s the kind of “in your face” politics that most New Englanders won’t let slide. A little corruption people seem to accept these days as the price of admission. But for Dodd, the hits just keep on coming.

Come to think of it, he’s toast.

Take our poll.