McMahon closing fast … aide says it all depends on turnout now

There you go. It depends on the little “mobsters”. Can’t say I am surprised. The latest Rasmussen poll demonstrates a dramatic turnaround for Republican Senate Candidate Linda McMahon especially with independents. Details below the fold.

Rasmussen shows Blumenthal with a 7 point lead, and that is daunting this late. But, she has halved the lead in one week and Fox News, which has access to internals, says she is picking up independents in droves.

The latest telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state shows Blumenthal picking up 53% of the vote, while McMahon earns 46%. One percent (1%) are still undecided at this point. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Still, these numbers move the race from Solid Democrat to Leans Democrat in theRasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings.

One week ago, Blumenthal held a double-digit lead over McMahon, 56% to 43%

National Review talked with the McMahon Campaign this morning and they are optimistic for the same reasons I have been telling you she is still in this race.

“In our internals, we saw a seven-point surge last week,” the aide tells Battle ‘10. “It’s only a couple of points now; it all depends on our get-out-the-vote effort.” The aide notes that some of the public polls don’t measure intensity, and in her internal polling, McMahon ties Blumenthal or leads him among the most likely voters. The key congressional districts to watch are the fourth and fifth — where Republicans Dan Debicella and Sam Caligiuri just might oust Democratic incumbents Jim Himes and Chris Murphy. McMahon expects to do well there.

I have said this before and I will say it again. These polls have been taking a pretty much party line approach, polling according to party affiliation. But if they really think the intensity is with Democrats in equal proportion to the Republican and Tea Party intensity, they are living in a bubble.

Watch the 5th district returns tomorrow night. That will indeed be a strong indicator of where this race is heading. It’s my guess that race will be over before the Senate race, but again, it all depends on getting out and voting and right now it’s not looking good for Murphy. From ctcapitolreport.com

Republican challenger Sam Caligiuri has opened a lead outside the margin of error and appears poised to defeat incumbent Congressman Chris Murphy. A four day tracking poll of 911 likely voters in the Fifth Congressional District shows Caligiuri inching past the 50% threshold. He now leads 51.5-43.8 with with just 4.7% undecided. The poll was conducted October 28-31 by the Merriman River Group and has a margin of error of +/- 3.2%.

If we are to believe these two polls, and again, I do not have internals, no one has been releasing them for two weeks now (surprise?), then McMahon and the Republicans are looking good in the nation’s bluest of blue states. Am I too optimistic?