Interesting: NBC News Political Unit has ALL House races shifting to right
With the last update from the NBC Political Unit prior to election day, every change analysts have made concerning House of Representatives elections have shifted in favor of the Republican. This in no way means Republicans are favored in the race, but is a clear indication of momentum for Republicans.
Hat tip to Founding Bloggers, who points us to the NBC update. NBC rates challenges like everyone else, and remember only 37 Senate seats are being decide this year. All House seats are in play. Races are tagged (in this example) as either Solid Dem, Probable Dem, Lean Dem, Toss Up, Lean GOP, Probable GOP, or Solid GOP.
None of the changes went from Lean GOP (R) to Solid GOP, but four races moved from Toss Up to Lean GOP, nine races moved from Lean Dem to Toss Up, and seven races moved from Probable Dem to Lean Dem.
Update: FreeRepublic commenter DoughtyOne notes…
As many others have noted, NBC can afford to skew the polls Left up until a few days before the polls open. By then they have to move the predictions closer to reality so that they don’t get completely destroyed when their polls wind up off by 15 points.
By that time it is hoped the damage has already been done.
If you look at the big picture – at least as suggested by NBC – the momentum is moving way right 84 hours from election day.
HOUSE RATINGS CHANGES
TX-17 TOSS UP TO LEAN R
TN-8 TOSS UP TO LEAN R
NV-3 TOSS UP TO LEAN R
WI-8 TOSS UP TO LEAN R
NJ-3 LEAN D TO TOSS UP
MO-4 LEAN D TO TOSS UP
IA-3 LEAN D TO TOSS UP
NM-1 LEAN D TO TOSS UP
TN-4 LEAN D TO TOSS UP
NY-20 LEAN D TO TOSS UP
MA-10 LEAN D TO TOSS UP
OH-6 LEAN D TO TOSS UP
AZ-7 LEAN D TO TOSS UP
MS-4 PROBABLE D TO TOSS UP
GA-12 PROBABLE D TO LEAN D
IA-1 PROBABLE D TO LEAN D
ME-1 PROBABLE D TO LEAN D
MI-15 PROBABLE D TO LEAN D
RI-1 PROBABLE D TO LEAN D
MA-4 PROBABLE D TO LEAN D
3 Comments
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It is probably a stunt to induce complacency in non Democrats.
It ain't over until the Behar sings…. 😉
Hahaha good one Dims…
The latest Quinnipiac poll used 930 CT "likely" voters. It has I's who were 56-40 for Blumie last week now 49-44 for Linda – huge momentum. This poll has a 3.2 % margin of error BUT note that they are INCLUDING "five percent of voters who name a candidate say they could change their mind". In the table they are identified as "leaners". Here is your huge flaw in the poll. Women are statistically decided. Men four percent undecided and I's SIX PERCENT "DK/NA" add this to the five percent leaners (given the Republican momentum) and you get very real scenario (again given the momentum) that puts Linda within the margin of error.