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UCONN Hartford Courant poll has Obama up by 21% in Connecticut

It’s not surprising to me that President Obama will win re-election in Connecticut, but I just want to remind people the polls mean absolutely nothing … the only poll that matters is election day.

Polls are now used to help individual voters form an opinion about a candidate, and that’s disturbing. Seriously, it’s a form of peer pressure. It’s the old adage asking “if all of your friends jumped off a cliff, would you?” Well honestly, many people would do just that simply to avoid being an outcast.

Admit it, your daily life with friends, family and co-workers is like a game of Political Survivor®. You build friendly relationships with everyone, while secretly forming alliances with those you find to be “politically cool” after an inadvertent comment is spoken aloud. A light bulb goes off and the pressure is removed … you’ve found another politically acceptable confidant.

I want to remind those of you who would rather move along with the sheep heard that you can vote for anyone you’d like in the voting booth – including the Romney/Ryan ticket – and lie to your friends if it makes you feel “more comfortable.” I’d be OK with that.  ;)

On to the UCONN – Hartford Courant poll that has Obama up by 21 percent. In 2008, Obama/Biden beat McCain/Palin by 22.3 percent. All things equal between 2008 and current day, the poll sample assumes 1 percent more of the voters will vote Democrat and 3.5 percent fewer will vote Republican in 2012.

(Thanks to Dr. Susan Berry who referenced this post and quoted me on Sept. 21. Unfortunately, there were three spam sites that steal content (in full) from Big Government who showed up in the Trackback links. Those have been removed.)

I just can’t see how that sample is based in any sort of reality. Sure, the way the poll is headlined, it looks like Obama lost 1.3 percent of the voters who picked him last time, but the poll had to over-sample 2008 Obama voters and under-sample McCain voters to get the result.

Hey media … you’re [Obama's] going to win Connecticut so why pad the results? Oh yeah … reinforcement of the Peer Pressure Factor®.

Other poll “findings” that just don’t make sense.

  • Supposedly, the poll indicates Obama is favored by one out of five conservatives – 21 percent.
  • The poll asks likely voters, but does not ask the first question … are you a registered voter. Likely voters do not equal registered voters.

Many readers know I’ve respected one poll out there asking registered, likely voters consistent questions over a period of time. It’s the George Washington University Battleground Poll which is now “owned” by Politico so they can stamp their name on it. It’s a bi-partisan poll that has always asked question D3. When thinking about politics and government, do you consider yourself to be… Very Conservative, Somewhat conservative, Moderate, Somewhat liberal, Very liberal or Unsure.

August 2012 results showed 57 percent considered themselves Very Conservative or Somewhat conservative. The poll has run seven times since Oct. 2010 and for question D3, the results showed between 62 percent and 57 percent – an average of 59 percent – considered themselves conservative. Note the poll gives the perfect out for the respondent if they don’t want to be bucketed … Moderate. (Normally less than 5 percent tick the Moderate box.)

Click here to read more of my past articles on the Battleground Poll, but just imagine if all of those registered, likely voters who consider themselves conservatives pulled the lever for Romney/Ryan. What a landslide that would be!

Read more about polling analysis here. Very happy to see more people asking about the poll cross-tabs and sample breakdowns.

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15 Responses to "UCONN Hartford Courant poll has Obama up by 21% in Connecticut"

  1. joe_m says:

    The poll includes the stuff the ballot box estimate.

  2. SeeingRed says:

    …the ‘trick’ is to get me to support UCONN in any capacity.  As a liberal shill, UCONN does not represent me and I find it offensive that dollar one of my tax money goes to support anything @ the University of Connecticut.

  3. Murphy says:

    I’ve never answered a telephone poll in my life, they’ve tried but I hang up and tell them to never call back. Most of my like minded friends (fiscal Conservatives / libertarians) do the same.

  4. stinkfoot says:

    …meanwhile our unemployment jumps to 9%.  I guess people here support the utter destruction of the economy.  The media is doing all they can to effect a reelection.  Their power to control the narrative makes that a very significant thing indeed.

  5. JBS says:

    I would think if 57% of likely voters identify as being conservative, other organization’s polls would reflect that fact. This Battle Ground poll indicates that there is a definite disconnect with other polls and the media’s reporting of those results. 
     
    Gee, Wally, could the media be lying to us?
     

  6. sammy22 says:

    Perhaps it’s true that 57% of likely voters identify themselves as conservatives, but they do not like nor vote for  “conservative” candidates.

    • Lynn says:

      Ha Ha now Sammy, how would you know, what candidates conservatives like or vote for.

    • Steve M says:

      I understand where you are coming from, but honestly, I don’t think I’ve seen a true conservative candidate run for national office in a long time. Therefore, I don’t accept your premise. I certainly would not label Romney or Bush 43 conservatives … I’m talking a constitutional conservative and supporter of federalism. (I’m using federalism in the modern sense associated with the USA … you know, all federal government powers not enumerated in the Constitution are reserved exclusively to the states and the people.)

  7. sammy22 says:

    I understand where you are coming from. Who are those 57% conservatives going to vote for? This poll already says that Pres. Obama will win again.

    • You don’t understand. This post deals with a Connecticut-specific poll and the Battleground Poll is nationwide. I never said 57% would vote for Romney, I said “imagine if…”

  8. ricbee says:

    There is not an ardent conservative in the running for any office in deep blue Corrupticut,but a 1/2 baked one could win the Senate.

  9. yeah says:

    There is no way Obama is going to win in November here unless another Bycewicz>Malloy like maneuver is pulled and they create an artificial ballot shortage and then find a whole ton of votes for Obama in some unmarked bag.
     
    I dont know a single person around here who says they are going to vote for Obama.  Sure I see O stickers on cars here and there, but people in my life and the people I talk to, just about every single one of them is just waiting to vote against obama.
    Of course we dont have a good conservative candidate – people arent up for the media anal exam – but that is going to change with time as more and more people realize the jig is up and we’ve been lied to and manipulated for 30, 40, god knows how long with stuff like this.

  10. Benjamin Less says:

    Personally, I think Obama should win the 2012 Elections.  The mess a Republican will walk into made by Obama during his first 4 years in office will be a suicide mission. 
     
    There’s not a corner of our entire economy that has a firm standing toward growth.  Let Obama win in 2012, own his imploded debt and media-ated lies to the middle class and have him back pedal blame to Bush 43.  Then watch his fanboy-base crumble around his feet in 2014 and both Houses turn Republican. 

     
    Liberals and Hollywood-Likens should experience food lines and soup kitchens, and a military a mere skeleton of what it was a decade earlier.  Municipal, State and Federal employees with bankrupt pension funds in city and towns nation-wide will wake them up.  This will teach residents like Connecticut that if you push the Progressive button too long, you will become the problem not the…

  11. yeah says:

    great idea ben, let obamacare get fully implemented, let O appoint 2 more shill supreme court justices, let fast & furious become totally 100% buried, let the EPA continue its war against economic development, let us all suffer more, just so we can “show them” that progressive ideology is vacuous and harsh to 99.5% of everyone?

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