It’s not surprising to me that President Obama will win re-election in Connecticut, but I just want to remind people the polls mean absolutely nothing … the only poll that matters is election day.
Polls are now used to help individual voters form an opinion about a candidate, and that’s disturbing. Seriously, it’s a form of peer pressure. It’s the old adage asking “if all of your friends jumped off a cliff, would you?” Well honestly, many people would do just that simply to avoid being an outcast.
Admit it, your daily life with friends, family and co-workers is like a game of Political Survivor®. You build friendly relationships with everyone, while secretly forming alliances with those you find to be “politically cool” after an inadvertent comment is spoken aloud. A light bulb goes off and the pressure is removed … you’ve found another politically acceptable confidant.
I want to remind those of you who would rather move along with the sheep heard that you can vote for anyone you’d like in the voting booth – including the Romney/Ryan ticket – and lie to your friends if it makes you feel “more comfortable.” I’d be OK with that. ;)
On to the UCONN – Hartford Courant poll that has Obama up by 21 percent. In 2008, Obama/Biden beat McCain/Palin by 22.3 percent. All things equal between 2008 and current day, the poll sample assumes 1 percent more of the voters will vote Democrat and 3.5 percent fewer will vote Republican in 2012.
(Thanks to Dr. Susan Berry who referenced this post and quoted me on Sept. 21. Unfortunately, there were three spam sites that steal content (in full) from Big Government who showed up in the Trackback links. Those have been removed.)
I just can’t see how that sample is based in any sort of reality. Sure, the way the poll is headlined, it looks like Obama lost 1.3 percent of the voters who picked him last time, but the poll had to over-sample 2008 Obama voters and under-sample McCain voters to get the result.
Hey media … you’re [Obama's] going to win Connecticut so why pad the results? Oh yeah … reinforcement of the Peer Pressure Factor®.
Other poll “findings” that just don’t make sense.
- Supposedly, the poll indicates Obama is favored by one out of five conservatives – 21 percent.
- The poll asks likely voters, but does not ask the first question … are you a registered voter. Likely voters do not equal registered voters.
Many readers know I’ve respected one poll out there asking registered, likely voters consistent questions over a period of time. It’s the George Washington University Battleground Poll which is now “owned” by Politico so they can stamp their name on it. It’s a bi-partisan poll that has always asked question D3. When thinking about politics and government, do you consider yourself to be… Very Conservative, Somewhat conservative, Moderate, Somewhat liberal, Very liberal or Unsure.
August 2012 results showed 57 percent considered themselves Very Conservative or Somewhat conservative. The poll has run seven times since Oct. 2010 and for question D3, the results showed between 62 percent and 57 percent – an average of 59 percent - considered themselves conservative. Note the poll gives the perfect out for the respondent if they don’t want to be bucketed … Moderate. (Normally less than 5 percent tick the Moderate box.)
Click here to read more of my past articles on the Battleground Poll, but just imagine if all of those registered, likely voters who consider themselves conservatives pulled the lever for Romney/Ryan. What a landslide that would be!
Read more about polling analysis here. Very happy to see more people asking about the poll cross-tabs and sample breakdowns.