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Summary of party affiliation and the election prediction contest

I think it’s safe to say I’m not a very good guesser when it comes to elections. I really have not done it before so who would listen to me? Well, there is plenty of information on the Internet for you to read and gather, so what are your predictions for today?

Contest Rules:

  1. You need to be registered on the site with a valid email address.
  2. Submit your Electoral College and Popular Vote predictions.
  3. One and only one guess … if you provide multiple predictions all of your entries will be disqualified.
  4. In the event of a tie, those subscribers who had the same guess will have their names placed in a hat and we’ll draw.

I’ll run two contests, one for Electoral College (EC) numbers and the other for popular vote. What this means is you can win the EC contest and lose the popular vote or visa-versa. You could also win both. Winners get their choice of RVO T-shirt or a TEA Party hat that we have in stock. I’ll cover shipping anywhere in the USA or an APO box.

My Prediction

We’ll, it’s mine in partnership with AJ Strata over at The Strata-Sphere. I found Rasmussen’s history of party affiliation – all the way back to the 2008 election – compelling to say the least. Rasmussen had Democrats +7.1 percent in October 2008, and Obama won the general election by 7.2 percent. In other words, Rasmussen nailed it.

At the 2010 mid-terms it was Democrats + 2.9 percent and we know how that worked out for the Democrats in Congress. (November quickly flipped to GOP +1.3 percent after the win.) Current results show a huge 12.9 percent change in party affiliation since Oct. 2008, with the GOP currently at +5.8 percent.

When it comes to popular vote, I’ll go with Rasmussen’s 5.8 percent exactly and predict Romney by 5.8 percent. I’ll go with Strata’s EC prediction of 321 – 217 Romney simply because it makes sense and I’m not any good at Electoral math.

So here are my [Strata's] swing state predictions, based on what is a more likely an R+6 nation (not some D+8, D+9 or D+11 nonsense):

Governor Romney will win:

  • Florida
  • North Carolina
  • Virginia
  • Colorado
  • New Hampshire
  • Ohio
  • Wisconsin
  • Iowa
  • Pennsylvania
  • Nevada

President Obama will win:

  • Michigan
  • Minnesota

Therefore, the EC count will be: 321 Romney, 217 Obama

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10 Responses to "Summary of party affiliation and the election prediction contest"

  1. stinkfoot says:

    Romney will win the popular vote by 5%
    ~but~
    Obama will win the E.C. 270-268
     
    Romney will be prematurely declared the winner after a key battleground state swings in his favor but Obama will carry enough states by the narrowest of margins to get to 270 electoral votes.  Connecticut will be among the top two states with the widest percentage of victory for Obama.
     
    Numerous calls for recounts will be stonewalled… as will demands missing absentee ballots for military personnel serving overseas be accounted for.

  2. yeah says:

    romney wins popular by about the u3 #
    321-217 sounds about right,
    and I’ll call a close one in CT that winds up having the corrupt officials make sure it goes to obama just like they did with malloy.

  3. Murphy says:

    Romney Popular vote 7.2%
    Electoral vote 305-233
     
    Bridgeport 115% turn out

  4. gillie28 says:

    As someone not allowed to run for President (not born in US :)) nad rarely even voting (yuckky choices all around), I’m astonished at the US system of electing Presidents.  When you look at the states’ map of the US, it seems overwhelmingly republican…YET, democrats have more than a chance of winning the electoral vote.  And this includes Romney winning the majority of votes (or as you call it “popular vote.  Don’t get it.  Sorry.  The one with the most votes should win – or is that too simple????”

    Anyhow, um, as far as I can gather (by adding Steve’s electoral votes) there are 538  altogether, so I’ll go with Romney winning popular vote and Romney 280 +/- and Obama 258  – and I gave O a few extra since Bobby Dylan thinks he’ll win overwhelmingly :).  Just for old times’ sake.

  5. gillie28 says:

    p.s. if Bridgeport has 115% turnout, then Chicago will have at least 130%.  Hint to UN observers: check the obituaries

  6. Sal says:

    electoral
    Romney 275
    Obama   263
    Romney wins popular vote by 4.4%

  7. JBS says:

    Romney >279 electoral votes.
    Romney will win the popular vote by 6.3%
    The Democrats will sue for a recount in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania.
    Roberts will throw the election to Obama by giving him Pennsylvania and Ohio.
    ABC, CBS, NBC, along with CNN, will play the dirge music from Stalin’s funeral during news broadcasts until the SCOTUS decision, then switch to musicals (ick!).
    Connecticut will get a massive, multi-billion dollar “green energy loan” and then, suddenly, will go out of business. (!!!) Who knew?
     

  8. Holy crap. Nobody wins… I guess I’ll have to figure out who was close even though the entries predicted a Romney win. I’ll wait for a couple of days to look at all the numbers and get in touch with the winner or winners.

    The contest is obviously closed ;) 

    • Lynn says:

      I should have realized, the reason why I couldn’t participate in this contest, is because I didn’t believe.  In my heart, I knew that entitlements would overcome responsibility. We who read RVO daily, will have to just plow ahead and bear it. Ok that metaphor either makes me a farmer or someone who plows snow! I’m guessing a farmer, out of seeds sown grow sustenance. I wish peace of mind to all.

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