You will see more and more of this as we get closer to the fall election. You might as well forget about quality polling for the time being, not that it was all that good anyway. In this case, NBC and the Wall Street Journal figure you don’t care about the sample break-down between Democrats and Republicans.
The media love polls. They are “easy” for the audience to listen to and the so-called “facts” are so easy to “digest.” They are straight forward, with generally four pieces of information; two names and two numbers. But the facts are much more complicated, as polls can be “massaged” to change results to the point where they are absolutely meaningless.
An example. If I head off to an elementary school and ask 100 first-graders the following question, what do you think the results would be? For your birthday, would you like to have a Princess Party or a Bounce House Party? My report: 85% of first-graders would prefer to have a Princess Party for their birthday this year.
This is an extreme example, but I could easily get that result by increasing the number of girls in the sample. If the normal boy to girl ratio in the United States is 51 to 49, all I’d need to do was to use a sample including 90 girls and 10 boys to get my result. Again, this is an extreme example of poll manipulation to make a point, but the media and pollsters do this on a smaller scale all the time, but nobody complains … except for the alternative media. From AP at Hot Air, with my emphasis in bold.
The 2008 national exit poll sample, taken when Hopenchange fever was at its zenith, was 39D/32R/29I, or D+7. This one, after three years of Obamanomics dreck, is somehow D+11 if you include leaners and D+12(!) if you don’t. Anyone feel like taking these results seriously?
So in-other-words, this poll assumes 4 percent more people are more in line with Democrats right now as compared to Nov. 2008. Right, sure, I believe that!
AP is pointing out this headline from MSNBC last night. NBC/WSJ poll: Negative campaign takes toll on candidates; Obama up six points. So in other words, they totally screwed with the sample to get a result that fits their agenda (Obama up), then created a reason – out of thin air – for the Obama bump that the masses would understand … “negative” campaigns.
Of course, “negative campaigning” has been the standard operating procedure since the first election in the United States, and probably forever, but the media keeps telling us this is something new. Every decade, they tell is it’s new. They treat you like idiots.
Don’t believe anything to see in the media when it comes to polls. Instead, start looking at the actual poll and the sample. Registered voters? Likely registered voters? Just adults? Lean conservative? Lean liberal? Democrat? Republican? Libertarian? Put their feet to the fire and demand quality polling that represents reality if they are going to do it at all.